Your tip. Scientifically founded.
Calculated 100,000 times!
Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists i🌠s that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole gam♏e of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of matౠch is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation👍 team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversi🉐on of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. ✤Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence ൲that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of go🥀als has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 🎃%꧙ of all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75%🌜 of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigﷺger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resu﷽lted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more🔜 goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past 🐟matches is especi♓ally informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for 🎉the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely st💜rongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level ♔of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages𒅌 out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportuni✨ties display the performances of teams.
A football match is d🙈ominated by effects of coincidence. Additionall𝔍y the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincide♏nce, the difference of goalscoring opportun𒐪ities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal differ🐓ence is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) 𓆏or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels ✤from match day to match day are, ther🌟efore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got sh𝄹it on your foot!“
In the context of statistical precꦛiseness, the conversi▨on of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march ꦐthrough“ is very special.
With the helpꦦ of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fac🧸t only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of th𝐆e season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey 🔯team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is♔ under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is e▨nough for today𒆙, we will let you know another rime.